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The SpaceX Economy Lifts Off

Quick Takes | June 08, 2026

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SpaceX’s IPO filing has renewed attention on both the company’s growth profile and the broader commercialization of space. It includes an important theme: space is evolving from a launch-driven market to a monetization-driven ecosystem. As the economics of reaching orbit improve, focus is shifting toward the commercial applications and new types of infrastructure that lower launch costs could make possible.

Launch Economics

Launch activity worldwide is becoming both more frequent and more cost-effective. Research from McKinsey projects an average of 210 launches annually from 2023 to 2030, declining to approximately 160 annually from 2031 to 2035 as larger launch vehicles with greater payload capacity enter service.[1]

As capacity increases, payload costs are expected to decline roughly 40% by 2035. SpaceX alone reported more than 160 successful launches in 2025 and estimated launch services revenue of approximately $4.1 billion.[2] Lower launch costs, improved reliability, and larger payloads are increasingly viewed as foundational to broader commercial activity in space. SpaceX’s Starship is one example. The company expects Starship to begin commercial operations as soon as the second half of 2026. If successful, it could lower the cost per kilogram to orbit, increase launch cadence and payload capacity, and help enable the next generation of space-based businesses.

Connectivity: The Current Monetization Engine

Connectivity currently represents SpaceX’s largest commercial business line and the most visible example of space-based revenue. Starlink provides satellite broadband and mobile connectivity via a global low-Earth-orbit network, extending internet access to consumers, enterprises, governments, and underserved regions.

In 2025, SpaceX estimated that Starlink generated approximately $11.4 billion in revenue and served more than 10 million customers globally.2 Communications, particularly broadband internet and mobile connectivity, are likely to remain core revenue drivers over the next several years as satellite networks expand capacity, improve coverage, and integrate more directly with terrestrial infrastructure.

AI Infrastructure: The Frontier Opportunity

SpaceX is also expanding into AI infrastructure following its acquisition of xAI, adding frontier models and compute services to its commercial strategy. The AI segment generated approximately $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue, according to the company’s filing.2

Longer term, SpaceX has identified orbital AI compute as a strategic opportunity, based in part on the potential availability of solar energy in space and its experience building, launching, and operating satellite networks. If feasible, space-based data centers could use solar power, potential thermal advantages, and satellite connectivity to support large-scale AI workloads. However, the technical and economic viability of orbital computing at scale is still uncertain, and SpaceX itself describes the effort as an incredibly difficult technical challenge.

Watch for SpaceX ETFs

Along with the space economy, a new ecosystem of financial products are expected to launch around the IPO as well. As of June 3, more than a dozen ETF providers had filed for funds tied to SpaceX.

Learn more about accessing 2x exposure to SpaceX after its IPO with the ProShares Ultra SpaceX ETF (SPCF).

The fund's registration statement is not yet effective and may be changed. Shares of funds may not be sold until the registration statement filed with the SEC is effective. This is not an offer to sell these securities and it is not soliciting an offer to buy these securities in any state where the offer or sale is not permitted.

 

1. McKinsey & Company and World Economic Forum, Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth, April 2024

2. Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 Registration Statement, filed May 20, 2026.

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