How to navigate shifting Treasury rates

Key Takeaways

Yields can move in either direction 

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields reflect expectations for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy, as well as the compensation investors demand for holding longer-dated maturities. A Federal Reserve pause alone is unlikely to determine where long-term yields go next.

Long-term Treasury yields could rise if investors demand higher real yields—the yields available after accounting for expected inflation. A largely resilient economy, stubborn inflation, and a hawkish Fed could support higher yields as well.

Yields could fall if inflation cools more quickly than anticipated, growth or employment weakens, or investors seek the relative safety of Treasurys during periods of market stress.

Flexibility matters when bonds are volatile

Increasing bond-market volatility reinforces the value of flexibility. The MOVE Index—which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bond yields over the next month—rose by more than 50% in the year ended October 30, 2026, from approximately 66 to 100.

ICE BofA MOVE Index 

Source: Bloomberg, as of 11/3/2026. ICE BofA MOVE Index, October 30, 2025 to October 30, 2026. Month-end observations.

Higher readings could indicate expectations for larger swings, but not their direction. It’s important to note that the MOVE Index spans multiple maturities and does not isolate long-term Treasury volatility or predict yield direction.

ProShares offers inverse and leveraged ETFs that target daily long-term Treasury bond index returns for investors with views on rising or falling yields.

The choice of direction and leverage should reflect an investor’s outlook, time horizon and risk tolerance. Treasury bond prices generally fall as yields rise and rise as yields fall.

The bottom line

With long-term yields exposed to competing economic forces and renewed volatility, it’s important to stay flexible in the current environment. ProShares’ inverse and leveraged Treasury ETFs may provide that flexibility, giving investors tools to express their tactical views on long-term Treasuries.